They say when a door is closed, a window may open. Several ambitious Texas politicians, from Joaquin Castro to Dan Patrick, could find that old proverb coming true with the consideration of Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) to become the next director of the FBI, News Radio 1200 WOAI reports.
If Cornyn, who was interviewed by President Trump on Saturday, does get the nomination, which is seen as a longshot, it could trigger a political shift not seen in more than two decades.
If Cornyn resigns to take the FBI job, Gov. Abbott would name a successor, who would serve until a special election is held, probably this fall.
Special elections for the U.S. Senate have signaled the two great tipping points in Texas politics over the last sixty years.
When LBJ resigned from the Senate to become John Kennedy's Vice President in 1961, the special election resulted in the election of Republican John Tower, the first Republican elected to the U.S. Senate from Texas since Reconstruction.
More than thirty years later, Democrat Lloyd Bentsen resigned from the Senate in 1993 to become President Clinton's Treasury Secretary. The victory of Republican Kay Bailey Hutchison in the runoff election is seen as the beginning of Republican dominance in Texas politics. Bob Bullock was elected Lieutenant Governor the following year, but he remains the last Democrat to win statewide non judicial election in Texas in more than two decades.
Special elections are problematic for the existing political power structure for several reasons.
First of all, candidates don't run as an affiliate of a party. Candidates run in one jumble, with no primary and no endorsed party candidates. Since fully 63% of all Texas voters cast a 'straight party' ticket last fall, a special election for the U.S. Senate would mean candidates could not hide behind a party label, with sometimes far reaching consequences.
Secondly, since the special election would be held in an off-year, that would free up candidates to seek Sen. Cornyn's Senate seat without having to give up their current elective office.
U.S. Rep Joaquin Castro (D-San Antonio) specifically said a desire to continue to serve in the U.S. House was the main reason he declined to run against Republican Senator Ted Cruz in next year's race.
Among the candidates who may be likely to run for Cornyn's seat, and still maintain their own job, include but are by no means limited to Castro, Republican Reps Mike McCaul and Pete Sessions, Democratic Rep Beto O'Rourke, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and several state lawmakers, potentially including Democratic State Senators Kirk Watson and John Whitmire.
Thirdly, another main reason Castro chose not to run was an expected unavailability of cash to make what many experts say would be a $20 million race. Democratic donors were unwilling to invest in a long shot contest for U.S. Senate is deeply Republican Texas when the same amount of money could easily float Senate races in three or four smaller states where Democrats desperately need to hold onto existing seats in states which Donald Trump won last fall, like Missouri, North Dakota, and Montana. But in a special election in the fall of this year, fully a year or more before those seats open up, that money would be available, especially if it might mean 'cracking the dam' in bright red Texas.
But before Democrats get their hopes up, officials say Cornyn is a long shot for the FBI post, and may not take the job even if it was offered.