OUTLOOK: The fact that six of the 10 teams in the Pac-10 have participated in
the NCAA Tournament in each of the past two seasons speaks to the strength of
the league in recent years. Sure, the Big East has gotten much more attention,
and rightly so, but look no further for the nation's second strongest
conference in 2007-08 and 2008-09. Unfortunately, that probably won't be the
case in 2009-10, as a wealth of talent across the board has evacuated the
Pac-10 in favor of the NBA and graduation. Some rosters are completely
depleted, but there are teams such as California loaded for a run at the Final
Four. The Golden Bears haven't been favorites in a long time, but a stacked
backcourt has Cal in position to live up to the hype. Washington figures to
challenge the Bears for league supremacy, as does UCLA, which continues to
bring in blue chip recruits every year. In Arizona, the Sean Miller-era
begins, and his Wildcats are the only other Pac-10 program capable of rising
to the top this season. The next tier of teams consists of Oregon State,
Oregon and Washington State, three teams with enough talent to be competitive
on most nights, yet not quite enough to capture the league crown. Arizona
State figures to take a step backwards, as the Sun Devils are unlikely to
repeat last season's 25-win campaign that resulted in an NCAA Tournament
berth. Finally, there is USC and Stanford, a pair of teams with inexperienced
rosters void of proven performers. Those two proud programs will be fortunate
to win half a dozen conference games this season.
CONFERENCE CHAMPION: California
PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH: 1. California, 2. Washington, 3. UCLA, 4.
Arizona, 5. Oregon, 6. Oregon State, 7. Washington State, 8. Arizona State, 9.
USC, 10. Stanford
TEAM BY TEAM ANALYSIS:
CALIFORNIA - So why is it that California gets the nod as the best team in the
Pac-10 heading into the 2009-10 season? Look no further than the senior
backcourt duo of Jerome Randle and Patrick Christopher. Randle is an
outstanding point guard who racked up 18.3 ppg and 5.0 apg a year ago. He
showed the ability to take over a game, but opponents can't send multiple
defenders his way because of the presence of Christopher. The 6-5 shooting
guard posted 14.5 ppg last year despite struggling with his three-point shot.
Jamal Boykin (9.6 ppg, 6.4 rpg) is a banger who brings toughness to the
frontcourt for Cal, but the best forward on the team is Theo Robertson. The
6-6 senior scored 13.1 ppg last season, and he has a polished skill set.
The lack of a big man is the biggest concern, but Cal is going to score plenty
of points this season, and if the defense can at least be solid, this group of
Golden Bears could find themselves in the Final Four.
WASHINGTON - As a freshman last season, 5-8 guard Isaiah Thomas scored 15.5
ppg and dished out 2.6 apg. There is no reason to believe that his progress
will be stunted in any way, as the explosive performer will continue to
improve with experience. Quincy Pondexter returns 12.1 ppg to the mix, and the
6-6 senior forward may be ready to elevate his game. After all, the Huskies
lost Jon Brockman and Justin Dentmon, two players who averaged more than 14.0
ppg apiece, so someone needs to fill the void offensively. The player that
everyone is waiting to see for Washington is freshman point guard Abdul Gaddy,
who changed his mind after initially committing to Arizona and joined the
Huskies. Gaddy figures to start immediately, and at 6-3 he may have to defend
the opposition's shooting guard rather than point guard because of Thomas'
lack of size. The frontcourt is a bit unproven, with the exception of
Pondexter, but head coach Lorenzo Romar feels there is enough collective
talent in place to do the job.
UCLA - Darren Collison, Jrue Holiday, Josh Shipp and Alfred Aboya are gone,
and with them went over 47 points per contest. Only one starter is back in the
fold, as senior Nikola Dragovic brings back 9.4 ppg and a 6-9 frame to the
frontcourt. So with all of the losses, how is Ben Howland going to get his
Bruins in the NCAA Tournament. Well, while nine of the 12 scholarship players
for the Bruins are sophomores and freshmen, there is plenty of young talent.
Jerime Anderson replaces Collison at the point, and he played few minutes a
year ago. But the 6-1 sophomore has great quickness and is fearless. Malcolm
Lee is a young player who may emerge as the go-to guy offensively because of
his explosiveness. Michael Roll is a three-point threat who can play both the
shooting guard and small forward positions, but a sprained right ankle may
slow him early on. UCLA seemed to do everything well last season in regard to
scoring, scoring defense and rebounding. Expect these Bruins to start slow and
finish strong.
ARIZONA - Sean Miller was 120-47 in five years at Xavier, so there is no
question that the new Arizona head coach knows how to win. Miller has a young
team, as 10 underclassmen are on the roster. Two stars are gone, as Chase
Budinger and Jordan Hill brought a combined 36.3 ppg and 17.2 rpg to the
frontcourt. Jamelle Horne is the top returnee up front, but his 6.8 ppg and
5.1 rpg aren't going to scare many opponents. The hope is that Kyryl
Natyazhko, a 6-10 freshman center, can be productive immediately. Miller has
raved about the big man's skill set, but he may need a month or so to get
comfortable. Without question, the best player on the roster is guard Nic
Wise, who scored 15.7 ppg while dishing out 4.6 apg as a junior last season.
Wise nearly departed for the NBA, and his return makes the 'Cats a borderline
Pac-10 contender. He is joined in the backcourt by Kyle Fogg, who managed 6.1
ppg as a freshman and may be poised for a big leap forward.
OREGON - Last season was an absolute nightmare for head coach Ernie Kent, as
his Oregon squad finished 8-23, including a woeful 2-16 in conference.
Fortunately for the Ducks, no major contributors are gone from that team, and
many of the young players who were forced into action a year ago figure to be
much improved. Four starters are back, and the man to watch is center Michael
Dunigan. At 6-10 and 255 pounds, Dunigan has the size to dominate, and the
sophomore managed 8.4 ppg on a bad team as a rookie. Don't be surprised if
Dunigan proves to be one of the Pac-10's best frontcourt performers by year's
end. Joevan Catron joins Dunigan up front, and he brings 7.2 ppg and 6.6 rpg
to the mix. Guard Tajuan Porter is tiny at 5-6 and 150 pounds, but he poured
in 15.4 ppg as a junior and is back for one last season. Garrett Sim had an
inconsistent freshman season, but he is ready to elevate his game as a
sophomore next to Porter. There is enough talent in place to make Oregon the
most improved team in the conference.
OREGON STATE - Two years ago, Oregon State lost all 18 of its conference
games. Enter Craig Robinson, the brother-in-law of now President Barack Obama,
who took over the reigns of the program and orchestrated a stunning
turnaround. The Beavers won seven conference games last season and finished
18-18 overall. Is Oregon State ready to claim its first NCAA Tournament berth
since 1990? Probably not, but there is reason for optimism considering that
almost every key contributor from the 2008-09 team is back. Roeland
Schaftenaar is a 6-11 senior who passes the ball exceptionally well out of the
post as his 3.3 apg suggest. More than just a passer, Schaftenaar scored 10.5
ppg last year and figures to take on a greater role offensively. Daniel Deane
brings muscle to the frontcourt, but he needs to be more productive to keep a
starting job. In the backcourt, Seth Tarver is a versatile performer who
managed 8.0 ppg and 5.4 rpg in 08-09. The most productive offensive returnee
is Calvin Haynes, who scored 13.0 ppg off the bench a year ago. If the Beavers
need a bucket, expect Haynes to get the ball.
WASHINGTON STATE - Last season, Washington State led the Pac-10 in scoring
defense, limiting opponents to 55.4 ppg. The Cougars don't score many points
at the offensive end (59.2 ppg), so the fact that two players who combined to
average nearly 26.0 ppg are gone suggests that new head coach Ken Bone will
have to find some scorers on his roster. Klay Thompson can certainly be
counted on, as the sophomore guard is coming off a rookie campaign that saw
him net 12.5 ppg. Thompson has great size at 6-6, but he is rail thin and
needs to add some bulk. Unfortunately, there is no other proven scorer to
speak of on the WSU roster. DeAngelo Casto is one of many young players who
will be asked to elevate their games, and Casto is coming off a freshman
season that saw him score just 4.4 ppg. Coach Bone wants to push the tempo a
bit, a change in style from what Tony Bennett did as the leader of the
program. There are some talented freshmen in place, and they will take their
lumps this season.
ARIZONA STATE - Herb Sendek knew that he could count on James Harden to take
over a game when necessary last season, but the star guard is now gone, and
with him went 20.1 ppg. Jeff Pendergraph, one of the nation's most underrated
players, has also moved on, and his 14.5 ppg and 8.2 rpg will be sorely
missed. Fortunately, there are some talented holdovers who are poised to lead
the Sun Devils in 2008-09. Rihards Kuksiks heads that list because of his
shooting ability, as the swingman tallied 10.3 ppg last season on the strength
of his three-point accuracy. Derek Glasser is an experienced senior who will
run the point with poise, and he is expected to improve his scoring output
(8.8 ppg) and assists (4.8 apg). Ty Abbott had a horrendous shooting year in
2008-09, and it remains to be seen if Sendek can count on the 6-3 junior. As
is the case with many teams in the Pac-10 this season, the frontcourt at ASU
is unproven.
USC - Taj Gibson is gone. So, too, are DeMar DeRozan and Daniel Hackett. Those
three players combined to score over 40 of the team's 68.5 ppg last season, so
there is no wonder why first-year coach Kevin O'Neill is expected to lose more
games than he wins in conference play. Fortunately, one of the best players in
the league wears a Trojan jersey, as Dwight Lewis is back for his senior
season. Lewis has good size at 6-5 and 215 pounds, and the swingman can do it
all on the court. He averaged 14.4 ppg, 3.3 rpg and 2.1 apg a year ago, and
the fact that he led the team in scoring speaks to his ability. Marcus Simmons
is a tremendous defender at the shooting guard position, but it remains to be
seen if he is capable of making a positive contribution offensively. Leonard
Washington brings strength and toughness to the frontcourt, but he is also
limited offensively. The hope is that one of the young players will prove
capable of helping Lewis, but this looks like a one-man show.
STANFORD - An optimist will state that Johnny Dawkins won 20 games in his
first season as head coach at Stanford and suggest that improvement is likely.
A realist, however, will point out that the Cardinal went 6-12 in conference
play and lost three of its four double-digit scorers from the 2008-09 squad.
One team has to be picked to finish last, and Stanford seems like the logical
choice. Landry Fields is back at forward after posting 12.6 ppg and 6.6 rpg as
a senior. Expect both of those averages to jump significantly, as First Team
All-Pac 10 honors are within reach. Unfortunately, there isn't much proven
talent surrounding him. Josh Owens is a shot-blocking threat at center, but at
6-8 he lacks ideal size. If Owens can score consistently, Stanford will be a
bit better than expected.
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