DROUGHT OUTLOOK: Good rains possible next week

Hurricane Jova is close to the west coast of Mexico with some of those high clouds moving through South Texas. Outside of these partly cloudy skies, our weather should be fair and pleasant through tomorrow. I'm tracking a cold front that will move through late tomorrow or tomorrow night but right now I'm not expecting any rain. Sunny, warm days and clear, cooler nights are in store behind this front from Thursday into the upcoming weekend. A stronger cold front is expected to move through around Tuesday of next week which will offer us our next chance of rain.

Surface moisture remains after the weekend rains so areas of fog might form later tonight and tomorrow morning. Slow clearing is expected through the day tomorrow as the atmosphere begins to dry out just a bit. I'm watching a cold front that'll be moving through Wednesday night but right now I'm keeping rain out of the forecast. High pressure will strengthen across the area toward the end of the week into the weekend so sunny skies and warm temperatures are expected from Friday through the weekend. Our next chance of rain looks to be around next Tuesday (Oct. 18th). Interestingly, the European computer models develop a rather potent tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico not too far from Texas by Thursday and Friday of next week. (Oct. 20,21) None of the other models agree yet but I'll be monitoring it.

If you don't receive answers to your blog postings quick enough here, please feel free to email me directly at johngerard@woaitv.com, that's probably a better way to get a quicker response to questions that need an answer right away. Hope everybody enjoyed the rain!

Got a big outside event planned for tomorrow (Sunday) at 6:00 pm out in Selma. Should I plan on postponing?

THROUGH NOON SATURDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTH AT 30 MPH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY. ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWERS...BUT HEAVY DOWNPOURS...OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. NEW RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH NOON WILL AVERAGE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS WITH ISOLATED TOTALS NEAR ONE QUARTER INCH WITH THE SHOWERS...AND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.

The dancing naked part freaks me out. You should probably stop doing that.

So, John, does this mean I can stop sacrificing chickens and dancing naked outside at midnight? It's starting to irritate my neighbors.

It's becoming more and more certain that welcome rain will impact our weekend. A slow moving storm out west is moving into the Rockies this afternoon and has already increased our southeast winds and caused some showers to break out mainly east of I-35 today. This steady increase in moisture will continue through the next several days and as the system itself gets closer, our rain chances will go up from tomorrow right through Columbus Day Monday. Although the heaviest rainfall totals will be in far west Texas (over 6" possible), we could see as much as 1"-3" here in San Antonio spread out over the next 3-4 days, most of it Sunday.

Comfortably cool nights and warm days are in store through at least Tuesday but a return to warmer, more humid conditons is expected for the second half of this week. A powerful storm approaching the west coast of the U.S. will move east and weaken as it moves into the Plains by Thursday but it'll be close enough to get us our next rain chance by next weekend, maybe sooner. The fire danger will remain elevated through Tuesday before higher humidity arrives toward midweek.

A little more drought relief tonight for areas west of San Antonio. Some spots picked up over 3 inches this evening. Just a few light showers in Bexar County but no measureable amounts expected tonight here locally. Our next chance of rain is later tomorrow/tomorrow night with a cold front moving through.